Updated Oil Chart

So far in 2016 I have had some good luck getting the direction of crude oil correct. On Jan 21, 2016 I suggested that oil was about to rally, then on Feb. 17, 2016 I showed that when a cluster of large rallies in oil happen they seem to occur at major bottoms. Finally, on Mar. 4, 2016 I posted a chart suggesting if $34 was achieved to the upside $41-42 was the target. Now I feel like pushing my luck with a new chart. A more bullish chart.

www.stockcharts.com

Light Truck Sales Strong

Richmond Fed

Miles traveled are also up to a new record. However, gasoline consumption due to fuel efficiency improvements remain below 2007 levels. This confirms the American love affair with driving is far from over.

EIA

Wage Gains Attracting Labour Market Participants

Richmond Fed

Richmond Fed

Mixed Data - New Orders vs. Construction

Manufacturing New Orders have declined recently.

Richmond Fed

While Private Construction continues to expand.

Richmond Fed

DOW - A Resumed Rally? Or Beginning of Recession?

Kimble Charting Solutions

Two conflicting messages come from these charts. The above chart has the DOW still above a long term channel. The below chart shows the IPO revenue and numbers of issued is declining like in previous recessionary periods. If the DOW breaks the support it would confirm the IPO message.

FactSet

Yield Curve

Richmond Fed

Inflation Metrics

All measures of inflation are firming from a low level in the US. If commodity prices stabilize and wage growth continues to show strength, then the FED will be much more comfortable raising rates.

Richmond Fed

Richmond Fed

Richmond Fed

Richmond Fed

Richmond Fed

Money Supply Growth in China

US Global Funds

Oil Chart

Stockcharts.com