Even with the drop today WTI oil finished up on the week. The big question is will the lower Bollinger Band hold? It has previously, but....
Friday, November 27, 2015
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Interesting Chart #2
This chart of the weekly WTI contact poses a interesting question. The price of WTI looks to finish positive for the first time in a month and third time in the past two months. The weekly candle is bouncing off the lower Bollinger Band. The bands width is contracting suggesting a big move is in the future, while the Accumulation/Distribution has made a V bottom while the Coppock Curve is rising.
If WTI tests the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands that would suggest a price of around $50. What I am curious about, would a $50 price just be current prices plus a geopolitical risk premium? Or an actual rally in oil, which could eventually also include a risk premium and test that upper Bollinger Band around the high $50's.
Alternatively, the price could break down out of the range.
Either way it seems a sizable move in WTI prices is on the horizon.
Interesting Chart #1
Capital spending is expanding faster in non-oil sectors than the contraction in the oil sector. The level of CAPEX has surpassed the late 2008 peak and is approaching the peak of 2012. This seems to suggest higher GDP the next few quarters.
Monday, November 23, 2015
Interesting Chart
The employment situation is tightening. Wage Growth is accelerating seen in the Average Hourly Earnings charts, which shows Wage Growth at the highest since the 2007-2008 Recession and the Phillips Curve is predicting further increases going into 2016.
I have to admit I forgot where I saved the second chart. I will reference it when I find the source.
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