US Trade Deficits and Recession

One burden of having the reserve currency is that the nation who issues it has to be the consumer to the world. Often the reserve currency is referred to as a privilege, however, Michael Pettis in Foreign Affairs explained back in 2011 that it could be a burden as well.

Note how shrinking trade deficits in the US have coincided with US recessions. This means the US has to buy more from the world than it sells and that cutting off global trade will not bring back workers.

CFR Blog

Credit is Growing

St Louis Fed FRED

Monetary Velocity

No bottom in sight?

St Louis Fed FRED

 Or is it bottoming?

St Louis Fed FRED

When velocity bottoms, deflationary trends will become non-existent. 

US Dollar Bull or Bear?

Over the past 5 presidents Democrats have been US Dollar bullish while Republicans have been USD bearish.

Danske Bank Weekly

Is this chart about to break out or break down? 

Richmond Fed

Demographics

There is concern by some analysts that demographics for equity assets are negative as the baby boomers retire. However, according to the Pew Center the millennials are a larger group.

Pew Center

Pew Center

Risks for each Commodity

EY

Bubble?

Will this end badly? Probably and when it does, will the PhD bubble be over? Will it be the end of interventionary economics? Is it the end of market socialism?

TCW Insights

Global PMI Trend Line Broken to Upside?

Will this continue? I believe that now that the IMF has lowered their outlook for global growth, that global growth should increase.

Top Down Charts

Fuel for the next Oil boom

When China began consuming a lot of gasoline as their automobile ownership took off, China was producing 4.5MM barrels of oil/day. India only produces about 1.5MMbbl/day. If Indian demand follows the path of other rapidly industrializing Asian nations, their imports will be larger than China.

In a few years, assuming India continues to grow, all the cancelled projects will cause a shortage. It is one reason I find it hard to be bearish of oil prices.

JKemp Energy

China Stockpiling Oil...Why?

When Brent futures dro below $45, China has been increasing oil imports. Why is China stockpiling so much? 

ThomsonReuters

Is the Fed Falling Behind the Curve?

Atlanta Fed

Oil Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern?

Elliot Wave Forecast