Wednesday, February 10, 2016

I thought the Phillips Curve was Dead

 I thought the Phillips Curve was Dead? I guess it is Only Broken

Three Sides of Inflation

Things changed in March 2012.

Chinese Growth vs. Japan and Korea's Previous Path

China is following a predictable path.

Oil vs. Dirt

I understand that oil sands operators are now ditching the oil and selling the dirt.

Chinese GDP Growth and Gross Expansion

Chinese gross GDP expansion is as much at 6.8% (2015) with its larger economy than it was at 12.7% with its smaller economy (back in 2006) and at 9.6% (in 2008). Our obsession with growth rates obscures the fact that the Chinese economy is still expanding by quite a much.

India vs. China

Will India grow with out increasing manufacturing? Does this mean India will move right to a service and import economy? 

Oil Prices, Euro and Inventories

This scatter-plot created by Confluence Investment Management shows where oil prices have traded with different inventory levels and Euro prices. One the big head winds for oil prices has been the US dollar. There has a been a slight bid in the Euro and I think it could be the contrarian trade of the year. Will this give oil a bounce?