Sunday, October 16, 2016

Risks for each Commodity


Bubble?

Will this end badly? Probably and when it does, will the PhD bubble be over? Will it be the end of interventionary economics? Is it the end of market socialism?

Global PMI Trend Line Broken to Upside?

Will this continue? I believe that now that the IMF has lowered their outlook for global growth, that global growth should increase.


Sunday, October 2, 2016

Fuel for the next Oil boom

When China began consuming a lot of gasoline as their automobile ownership took off, China was producing 4.5MM barrels of oil/day. India only produces about 1.5MMbbl/day. If Indian demand follows the path of other rapidly industrializing Asian nations, their imports will be larger than China.

In a few years, assuming India continues to grow, all the cancelled projects will cause a shortage. It is one reason I find it hard to be bearish of oil prices.

China Stockpiling Oil...Why?

When Brent futures dro below $45, China has been increasing oil imports. Why is China stockpiling so much? 


Is the Fed Falling Behind the Curve?

Oil Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern?